• US Treasury yields fell sharply across the curve, with the 3-year yield down 8 bp (-2.11%) as investors sought safety amid rising geopolitical tensions and volatility. • Energy commodities surged, with Brent crude oil gaining 4.49% on concerns surrounding the US-Iran talks, while metal prices generally saw declines, with silver dropping 1.60%. • The VIX rose by 7.95%, reflecting increased market anxiety, while equity markets experienced mixed performance, with tech stocks lagging as Meta Platforms dropped 2.56% amid weak earnings sentiment. **Recommendations** • Consider entering long positions in Brent crude futures — rising tensions and supply concerns could sustain the upward momentum. • Look to hedge against equity volatility by considering VIX call options after the sharp increase in market anxiety. • Monitor tech sector valuations closely ahead of impending earnings reports — weakness in names like Meta and Tesla may signal broader sector challenges. The market finished lower as geopolitical concerns and rising volatility overshadowed positive liquidity signals. Heightened tensions around the ongoing US-Iran negotiations and their implications for oil supply pushed Brent crude oil prices up 4.49% to $95.00, while the broader energy sector was under stress due to fluctuating demand. Headlines from Reuters highlighted renewed worries about shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, leading to a risk-off sentiment among investors. The rising prices in energy commodities underscored market anxiety as the S&P 500 lost 0.24%. Meanwhile, mega-cap tech stocks like Meta and Tesla saw significant declines, contributing to the overall downtrend in the equity market. From an economic data perspective, today’s releases had minimal impact as there were no significant surprises. The economic calendar was light, with no major data releases affecting market movement. The Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow estimate of 1.31% for Q1 2026 continues to indicate subdued growth, consistent with our “Slowdown / Stable / Dovish” macro regime classification. This regime reflects mixed signals across growth and policy, which was reinforced by a decline in the latest inflation breakeven measures — 5y breakeven inflation dropped 4 bp to 2.56%. Treasury yields dropped sharply across the curve, with the 3-year and 5-year yields decreasing 8 bp and 7 bp, respectively, indicating a strong flight-to-safety. The 10-year Treasury yield also fell 6 bp to 4.26%, contributing to a flattening yield curve amid expectations of continued dovish monetary policy. The market now implies a 95.4% probability of holding rates steady at 3.50-3.75% during the upcoming FOMC meeting on May 7th. Today's shift in rates aligns with deteriorating liquidity conditions, as reflected in the rising VIX, which indicates increasing uncertainty. In equity markets, the Wilshire 5000 managed to advance by 1.28% due to strength in sectors like real estate (+2.06%) and industrials (+1.90%). However, losses in energy (-2.80%) and technology (-1.12%) stocks highlighted a dichotomy, where defensive sectors outperformed. The volatility in the technology sector, especially with concerns over earnings, was further complicated by news of price adjustments driven by manufacturing costs — as covered by CNBC — potentially foreshadowing declines in consumer discretionary spending. The unusual move in Bitcoin (-1.33%) reflected a market under pressure, showing signs of weakness and signaling caution from risk assets. Looking ahead, upcoming earnings, particularly from major players like Amazon (reporting April 23) and Tesla (April 22), will likely influence market positions. Investors should also pay attention to forecasts from next week’s consumer data, including retail sales and inflation measures, which are likely to be key indicators for markets as they assess the durability of growth amid tightening conditions. Overall, the session encapsulated a cautious risk-off tone, where market participants appear to embrace defensive strategies amidst volatility and geopolitical tensions. The interplay between energy prices, tech sector performance, and economic indicators will shape trajectories in the coming days.