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daily ai reportupdated each morning; refers to the previous market session
Markets on Tuesday, January 13th saw a mixed reaction as investors digested key economic data alongside notable shifts across asset classes. The U.S. Treasury yield curve experienced a slight steepening, with the 3-month yield rising by 5 bp to 3.67%, while the 10-year yield increased by 1 bp to 4.19%. This environment reflects a cautious sentiment towards growth, driven by a robust 4.30% quarter-over-quarter increase in real GDP, which registered a notable 13.16% surge in its latest print. Conversely, the bank prime loan rate fell sharply by 17 bp, suggesting a dovish tone in monetary policy that contrasts with the upward pressure on longer-duration Treasuries. Internationally, the dynamics were mixed, with Japan's 10-year government yield rising significantly by 14.5 bp to 1.80%, indicative of tightening expectations, while European bonds displayed stability, with the UK 10-year yield down 7.4 bp to 4.50%. The yen weakened against the dollar, with USD/JPY rising 0.70% to 159.40, reflecting ongoing concerns about Japanese monetary policy divergence. The overall risk tone appeared moderately risk-off, as evidenced by a decline in equity indices like the S&P 500, down 0.13%, alongside a drop in the VIX by 6.98%, suggesting a mixed sentiment where some investors sought safety in bonds while others were positioned for growth. In the equity space, sector performance was varied, with notable strength in consumer discretionary stocks, up 2.76%, while financials fell 1.45%. This divergence highlights a rotation towards sectors benefiting from consumer spending, likely bolstered by the strong GDP data. Commodities also experienced positive momentum, particularly in energy and metals; silver surged 6.13%, driven by a weaker dollar and potential inflation concerns. The energy sector saw WTI crude oil rise 2.04% to $60.92, further supported by tightening supply conditions. Looking ahead, investors should focus on the implications of the recent economic data, particularly the strong GDP growth and shifts within the labor market, where job openings dropped significantly by 6.83%. This may signal potential volatility in upcoming labor reports. For tactical positioning, consider extending duration in U.S. Treasuries as inflation breakevens show resilience, while potential dips in the USD/JPY pair may offer entry points for currency trades as market sentiment fluctuates. Additionally, investors should monitor the upcoming earnings season and central bank communications for cues on policy direction and economic outlook, as these will be critical in shaping market sentiment and positioning in the coming sessions. Tone remains cautiously risk-off as markets digest tightening liquidity and sticky inflation signals.
Interest Rates
Policy Rates
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
6.83-17.0 bp-17.0 bp-17.0 bp-67.0 bp-82.0 bpfredMPRIME
3.640.0 bp0.0 bp0.0 bp0.0 bp-69.0 bpfredDFF
3.650.0 bp0.0 bp0.0 bp0.0 bp-75.0 bpfredIORB
3.630.0 bp-1.0 bp-1.0 bp-2.0 bp-70.0 bpfredOBFR
3.651.0 bp-1.0 bp-2.0 bp-22.0 bp-64.0 bpfredSOFR
3.71-0.1 bp-3.2 bp-23.7 bp-8.0 bp-69.0 bpfredSOFR30DAYAVG
3.94-0.7 bp-4.2 bp-16.0 bp-7.3 bp-67.5 bpfredSOFR90DAYAVG
International Bonds
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
2.664.0 bp4.0 bp4.0 bp17.4 bp35.2 bpfredIRLTLT01DEM156N
3.461.7 bp1.7 bp1.7 bp-21.7 bp-11.0 bpfredIRLTLT01ITM156N
1.8114.5 bp14.5 bp14.5 bp56.0 bp75.5 bpfredIRLTLT01JPM156N
4.50-7.4 bp-7.4 bp-7.4 bp-16.4 bp8.2 bpfredIRLTLT01GBM156N
4.18-1.0 bp0.0 bp-1.0 bp0.0 bp-61.0 bpfredDGS10
US Government Yields
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
3.721.0 bp2.0 bp-4.0 bp-2.0 bp-70.0 bpfredDGS1MO
3.670.0 bp4.0 bp4.0 bp0.0 bp-70.0 bpfredDGS3MO
3.591.0 bp3.0 bp1.0 bp0.0 bp-71.0 bpfredDGS6MO
3.51-2.0 bp3.0 bp-3.0 bp3.0 bp-73.0 bpfredDGS1
3.53-1.0 bp6.0 bp1.0 bp6.0 bp-87.0 bpfredDGS2
3.57-2.0 bp3.0 bp-1.0 bp2.0 bp-92.0 bpfredDGS3
3.75-2.0 bp3.0 bp0.0 bp2.0 bp-86.0 bpfredDGS5
3.95-2.0 bp2.0 bp0.0 bp1.0 bp-76.0 bpfredDGS7
4.18-1.0 bp0.0 bp-1.0 bp0.0 bp-61.0 bpfredDGS10
4.77-1.0 bp-3.0 bp-5.0 bp-2.0 bp-28.0 bpfredDGS20
4.830.0 bp-3.0 bp-2.0 bp-1.0 bp-14.0 bpfredDGS30
Yield Spreads
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
-0.14-1.0 bp2.0 bp-3.0 bp6.0 bp-17.0 bpsyntheticSPREAD_2Y_3M
0.22-1.0 bp-3.0 bp-1.0 bp-4.0 bp1.0 bpsyntheticSPREAD_5Y_2Y
0.51-1.0 bp-4.0 bp-5.0 bp0.0 bp9.0 bpsyntheticSPREAD_10Y_3M
0.65-0.0 bp-6.0 bp-2.0 bp-6.0 bp26.0 bpsyntheticSPREAD_10Y_2Y
1.082.0 bp-6.0 bp-2.0 bp-3.0 bp72.0 bpsyntheticSPREAD_30Y_5Y
Corporate Yields
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
5.32-2.0 bp-5.0 bp-5.0 bp-3.0 bp-29.0 bpfredDAAA
5.87-2.0 bp-5.0 bp-8.0 bp-3.0 bp-36.0 bpfredDBAA
12.330.0 bp-12.0 bp-11.0 bp-16.0 bp51.0 bpfredBAMLH0A3HYCEY
Corporate Yield Spreads
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
1.14-1.0 bp-5.0 bp-4.0 bp-3.0 bp32.0 bpsyntheticSPREAD_AAA_10Y
1.69-1.0 bp-5.0 bp-7.0 bp-3.0 bp25.0 bpsyntheticSPREAD_BAA_10Y
7.012.0 bp-7.0 bp-6.0 bp-13.0 bp80.0 bpsyntheticSPREAD_CCC_AAA
TIPS
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
1.38-3.0 bp-4.0 bp-5.0 bp-9.0 bp-68.0 bpfredDFII5
1.88-2.0 bp-3.0 bp-5.0 bp-5.0 bp-46.0 bpfredDFII10
2.58-1.0 bp-4.0 bp-3.0 bp-4.0 bp-1.0 bpfredDFII30
Mortgages
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
5.462.0 bp2.0 bp2.0 bp2.0 bp-67.0 bpfredMORTGAGE15US
6.161.0 bp1.0 bp-3.0 bp1.0 bp-75.0 bpfredMORTGAGE30US
Liquidity in the System
Liquidity
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
6,573,602.00-67,016.00-67,016.0037,821.00-67,016.00-278,889.00fredWALCL
3.500.000.000.000.00-0.75fredRRPONTSYAWARD
3.22-0.05-1.360.62-102.77-157.00fredRRPONTSYD
2,996,379.0038,969.0038,969.00138,095.0038,969.002,993,283.00fredWRESBAL
796,148.00-41,158.00-41,158.00-141,019.00-41,158.00795,428.13fredWTREGEN
Economic Data
Labour Market
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
1,914,000.0048,000.0048,000.00-25,000.0043,000.0086,000.00fredCCSA
208,000.009,000.009,000.0017,000.009,000.00-1,000.00fredICSA
7,146.00-524.00-524.00-524.00-616.00-885.00fredJTSJOL
2.000.200.200.200.000.10fredJTSQUR
62.40-0.10-0.10-0.10-0.20-0.10fredCIVPART
159,526.00-26.00-26.00-26.00473.00584.00fredPAYEMS
1,948.0038.0038.0038.00505.00397.00fredUEMP27OV
4.40-0.20-0.20-0.200.400.30fredUNRATE
10.40-0.20-0.20-0.201.401.40fredLNS14024887
Inflation
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
326.031.001.001.006.948.43fredCPIAUCSL
331.860.790.790.797.128.56fredCPILFESL
127.630.340.340.342.213.46fredPCEPI
126.950.250.250.252.373.49fredPCEPILFE
261.560.870.870.874.208.34fredPPIACO
Growth
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
31,095.09609.36609.36609.361,052.981,583.42fredGDP
635,651.002,419.002,419.002,419.0019,678.0018,818.00fredRSXFS
1,412.00-3.00-3.00-3.00-48.00-16.00fredPERMIT
1,246.00-60.00-60.00-60.00-112.00-106.00fredHOUST
101.790.180.180.18-1.09-0.16fredINDPRO
4.300.500.500.504.901.00fredA191RL1Q225SBEA
Breakevens
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
2.36-1.0 bp6.0 bp7.0 bp10.0 bp-19.0 bpfredT5YIE
2.29-1.0 bp2.0 bp4.0 bp4.0 bp-15.0 bpfredT10YIE
2.22-1.0 bp-2.0 bp1.0 bp-2.0 bp-11.0 bpfredT5YIFR
Forex
Currencies
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
99.16400.22000.61000.78200.9830-10.1060yahooDX-Y.NYB
1.16430.0001-0.0038-0.0109-0.01070.1336yahooEURUSD_X
1.34370.0016-0.00240.0071-0.00370.1224yahooGBPUSD_X
158.3750-1.02901.70203.31501.62900.3250yahooJPY_X
0.66850.0004-0.00410.00520.00100.0493yahooAUDUSD_X
1.38860.00020.00260.01110.0164-0.0466yahooUSDCAD_X
0.7997-0.00200.00190.00340.0074-0.1128yahooUSDCHF_X
0.57430.0009-0.0029-0.0025-0.00150.0141yahooNZDUSD_X
6.9725-0.0045-0.0235-0.0742-0.0150-0.3584yahooUSDCNY_X
9.1970-0.03230.0203-0.09200.0011-1.9703yahooUSDSEK_X
10.0564-0.0322-0.0223-0.1079-0.0177-1.3183yahooUSDNOK_X
17.7967-0.0263-0.1783-0.1878-0.2078-2.7073yahooUSDMXN_X
43.1460-0.00720.10610.46460.18237.6766yahooUSDTRY_X
16.39890.0197-0.0455-0.3835-0.1074-0.1000yahooUSDZAR_X
184.3450-0.97401.29102.36900.355021.4620yahooEURJPY_X
0.8662-0.0009-0.0013-0.0127-0.00550.0223yahooEURGBP_X
212.8000-1.11001.82405.54201.791019.8220yahooGBPJPY_X
0.9308-0.0018-0.0008-0.00430.0004-0.0096yahooEURCHF_X
Commodities
Metals
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
4,640.9036.80164.70282.50296.801,963.40yahooGC_F
90.615.2310.7827.8019.4560.47yahooSI_F
6.120.110.120.720.391.81yahooHG_F
3,175.0029.7574.50279.00194.50603.25yahooALI_F
2,297.000.000.000.000.000.00yahooZNC_F
2,437.6097.3084.80644.40351.501,501.40yahooPL_F
1,960.0088.00123.00406.50270.001,019.30yahooPA_F
Energy
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
60.921.224.693.193.41-16.58yahooCL_F
65.281.205.304.164.34-14.64yahooBZ_F
3.410.07-0.03-0.77-0.20-0.55yahooNG_F
2.230.060.160.010.11-0.30yahooHO_F
1.850.020.160.080.14-0.26yahooRB_F
Agriculture
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
421.250.50-23.75-19.25-18.75-53.25yahooZC_F
510.25-0.50-1.75-17.001.00-36.00yahooZW_F
1,042.00-6.75-21.50-33.25-17.75-1.00yahooZS_F
362.654.15-13.50-5.0513.0040.70yahooKC_F
5,217.00-234.00-794.00-1,018.00-890.00-5,734.00yahooCC_F
65.04-0.160.190.940.74-2.46yahooCT_F
197.65-3.65-42.3533.05-8.55-282.65yahooOJ_F
Livestock
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
236.400.920.907.275.2239.00yahooLE_F
84.450.42-1.001.20-1.450.82yahooHE_F
US Markets
Volatility / Sentiment
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
108.9912.4318.649.6620.581.06yahoo_VVIX
16.300.971.27-0.101.44-2.41yahoo_VIX
51.00-2.60-2.60-2.60-20.70-20.80fredUMCSENT
Indices (US)
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
6,926.56-24.39-15.97110.4249.741,083.65yahoo_GSPC
49,075.38-171.16-185.25695.05925.656,557.10yahoo_DJI
23,508.23-131.54-97.87412.86158.534,463.84yahoo_IXIC
2,630.07-3.8057.1580.75133.68410.83yahoo_RUT
69,637.13-124.05214.131,428.881,428.4511,062.42yahoo_W5000
Sectors (Cap Weighted)
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
116.56-0.35-0.250.35-1.4621.87yahooXLC
123.01-0.941.881.352.99-97.16yahooXLY
82.011.205.282.433.976.96yahooXLP
47.920.872.482.823.19-41.11yahooXLE
53.90-0.40-1.72-1.21-1.156.15yahooXLF
156.850.15-2.881.741.6218.68yahooXLV
163.91-0.133.147.017.9530.84yahooXLI
48.870.332.083.743.33-36.10yahooXLB
41.060.510.410.220.631.95yahooXLRE
144.16-2.09-2.611.44-0.69-82.53yahooXLK
43.080.320.830.080.17-31.05yahooXLU
Sectors (Equal Weighted)
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
21.50-0.130.42-0.610.64-2.31yahooRCD
30.150.351.210.131.131.50yahooRHS
83.001.322.211.203.422.89yahooRYE
78.63-1.04-2.20-0.360.148.47yahooRYF
32.79-0.13-0.410.850.942.85yahooRYH
47.12-0.17-0.341.131.6110.14yahooRYT
36.700.251.072.842.624.12yahooRTM
59.910.200.982.643.289.75yahooRGI
75.170.500.040.400.3911.97yahooRYU
34.030.200.040.400.400.48yahooEWRE
39.54-0.23-0.310.02-0.296.43yahooEWCO
Stocks (US)
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
182.27-1.74-8.635.68-6.6050.54yahooNVDA
260.540.91-1.57-13.54-12.0528.09yahooAAPL
463.36-6.48-20.18-10.58-22.1749.96yahooMSFT
239.32-4.07-3.2515.637.4621.56yahooAMZN
621.04-4.66-25.97-19.89-41.4828.17yahooMETA
334.32-3.1214.5026.3920.56145.28yahooGOOGL
435.79-12.610.47-40.67-17.8539.43yahooTSLA
Crypto
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
96,732.741,319.255,487.3410,709.198,946.27-3,771.75yahooBTC-USD
3,334.123.57165.09381.54354.49-116.42yahooETH-USD
146.080.589.3719.5520.68-59.83yahooSOL-USD
0.15-0.00-0.000.020.03-0.24yahooDOGE-USD
2.13-0.03-0.040.250.29-1.02yahooXRP-USD
940.95-8.4339.1585.6172.84226.93yahooBNB-USD
14.05-0.080.551.271.82-8.06yahooLINK-USD
0.41-0.010.010.030.08-0.67yahooADA-USD
76.52-1.92-5.35-0.95-0.51-40.69yahooLTC-USD
Rest of World
Global Benchmarks
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
99.280.541.352.073.3225.44yahooEFA
57.680.230.803.362.9816.81yahooEEM
144.60-0.090.602.732.6328.81yahooACWI
Indices (Europe)
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
6,040.6914.73111.61302.49244.471,060.22yahoo_STOXX50E
25,436.5129.67418.211,178.121,070.925,165.18yahoo_GDAXI
8,383.7449.06149.48283.92244.63960.07yahoo_FCHI
10,171.0021.1171.70477.15223.791,969.50yahoo_FTSE
Indices (Asia)
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
53,866.03-483.022,311.674,197.753,447.7315,421.45yahoo_N225
27,046.77124.62573.351,283.661,387.297,826.99yahoo_HSI
4,187.2516.7294.61301.27220.22946.31yahoo000001.SS
4,811.5613.6918.89232.20171.72991.02yahoo000300.SS
4,749.8743.27144.13701.81533.012,253.06yahoo_KS11
8,866.7065.20161.30222.00167.20653.40yahoo_AXJO
25,649.80-102.00-499.70-307.85-534.052,473.75yahoo_NSEI
Indices (Americas & EM)
NAMELATEST1D1W1MYTD1YSOURCECODE
32,853.34-12.81836.011,290.591,040.528,264.74yahoo_GSPTSE
163,201.41880.4582.411,309.161,295.3443,902.41yahoo_BVSP
66,777.78-63.032,714.711,827.612,372.7416,933.78yahoo_MXX
11,510.00183.00374.00910.00340.004,073.51yahooSTX40.JO
last updated: 2026-01-15 01:21:06 UTC